I am aware of several people that think that the Republican party is in the process of failing. Political scientists would seem to disagree, but there is definitely something happening in the Republican party.
Recent polling shows that the Republican party’s popularity is at its lowest point since 1992: the year that Bill Clinton took the White House for the Democrats.
From People Press:
Currently 33% of the public has a favorable impression of the Republican Party, while 62% have an unfavorable view.
And a few paragraphs later in the article,
Currently, 45% of the public has a favorable impression of the Democratic Party, while 50% have an unfavorable opinion.
That gives the Republican party a -29% approval score among the American people while the Democrats have a -5% approval score.
As bad as those scores are on for both political parties, the Republicans seem to dislike themselves as well. Within the Republican party, only 68% of the Republicans approved of their party.
That gives an internal Republican approval score of 36%. While that isn’t the greatest score in the world, that also isn’t a score that would appear to actually destroy the Republican party. Unless the internal Republican approval score approaches 0%, there is little chance that the party will fracture or disintegrate.
What is more likely that a fracture is a political realignment. A sizable portion of the Republican party isn’t happy with the party. If the Republicans are going to continue to win, obviously they will need those people to continue to vote Republican. The only solution is to become more responsive to a larger percentage of their people without alienating an equally large percentage.
All of the above might be easy enough to imagine, but what will the Republican party do to solve this problem.
One solution is to scale back the culture war. There don’t seem to be many people left in the “moral majority” regardless of whether they consider themselves conservative, Republican, or Christian. While I suspect that the language will remain in the Republican platform for the foreseeable future, I doubt there will be enough cold culture warriors to maintain the Republican party while it is in decline.
Another part of the solution would be to emphasize the middle class. The middle class (and poorer) will have to be addressed with more than just rhetoric. Whether they like to admit it or not, medicare and medicaid are just as important to the working class white people as they are to any other group. And while they might not like to admit it, they use the same resources as the people in any other group. There are also plenty of white people out here without a golden parachute or a retirement account that would fund a small country.
Regardless of what the Republican party does, one thing you can bet on is that it will do something to elevate the happiness of the Republican voter. They will have no choice. If they don’t find a way to actually help their voters, they will lose more and more of them until their party actually does die.