There has been a lot of talk about whether Donald Trump will get a “bump” in the polling following the Republican National Convention. It looks like he did. Other pollsters are reporting various levels of the bump, and only time will tell whether his polling will remain at the higher level or revert back to its lower level.
I was curious to see how the Presidential race was developing over a slightly longer term; namely, I wanted to see how the previous month developed. Here is the latest graph for the last month ending on July 24, 2016 — the Sunday after the end of the Republican National Convention.
X axis = days to general election.
Y axis = percentage
Margin = Clinton percentage minus Trump percentage.
As you can see, Hillary Clinton has held pretty well steady though there was a slight drop in her trend line. After the month that the Democratic party just endured, it is amazing that there wasn’t a greater drop prior to the Democratic National Convention.
Donald Trump, on the other hand, has steadily gained over the course of the past moth. You can see the increase at the right of the chart that represents the polling done right after the Republican National Convention. With that bump, you can see that his trend has been positive over the timeframe.
Finally, the bottom line represents the difference between Clinton and Trump (Clinton – Trump). A positive number indicates that Clinton is in the lead while a negative number indicates that Trump is in the lead. It is obvious that Clinton’s lead has dissipated over the past month and they are now essentially tied, although the polling margins are split between positive and negative on the most recent data.
Since this should be the time when Donald Trump is at his best, the fact that he can barely tie Hillary Clinton doesn’t bode well for his campaign. While there is still a long way to go before the general election, if Donald Trump doesn’t significantly improve — or Hillary Clinton dramatically falter — then he has little chance of winning in November.
- All data was downloaded from the HuffPost Pollster.
- Data was limited to registered voters.
- Data was limited to polls ending between June 24 and July 24, 2016
- Data was retrieved on July 28, 2016