[Edit: added Aug 18, 2016]
I couldn’t leave the below graph alone. While accurate, the dates were stretched out. With stretched out dates, it is possible to give an inaccurate view of exactly how the voting was shaping up. I have recreated the chart keeping the date until election on a linearly decreasing line.
I have used two different y axes. The axis on the left is related to the Clinton v Trump polling percentage. The axis on the right is only related to the difference between Clinton and Trump (Clinton’s percentage minus Trump’s percentage). By putting all the data into one graph, I believe it is more visually accurate without losing accuracy.
As you can see, the only times that Donald Trump has led in this timeframe has been between 109 and 107 days until the general election. That also represents the Republican National Convention. His campaign began to tank directly following his convention.
[End of Edit]
It is obvious by watching the news that Donald Trump is losing. Presently, the polling figures aren’t even close. While I haven’t been doing any polling calculations recently, curiosity did get the better of me and persuaded me to at least show where we are. This isn’t a deep analysis of the current state of the race; instead, I just wanted to see how bad it was from a grand overview.
I limited my data to non-partisan pollsters. I also excluded likely voters since, in my opinion, there aren’t enough good polls. This is the result:
While that might not look all that bad, currently it represents a landslide victory for Hillary Clinton. While this isn’t the best chart that I have ever made, you can see that things have taken a dramatic turn for the worst for Donald Trump since he peaked 114 and 107 days until the election. Those dates correspond to the polling that was done right around the Republican National Convention. It has been all down hill from there.
You can also see that the polling seems to have stabilized starting at about the 100 day mark. It will be interesting to see whether the latest dramatic changes Donald Trump has done in his campaign will make any difference.