Presidential polling by state prior to the first presidential debate

Clearing up the confusion

There was some initial confusion regarding the “winner” of Monday night’s presidential debate. While the respectable polling firms either hadn’t finished conducting their polls or weren’t doing such quick polls, social media was flooded with messages saying that Donald Trump had won the debate decisively won the debate. We can now put that nonsense behind us.

Here is a quick quote as to what happened directly after the debate from The Daily Dot:

The efforts originated from users of the pro-Trump Reddit community r/The_Donald and 4chan messaged boards, which bombarded around 70 polls, including those launched by Time, Fortune, and CNBC.

There were plenty more news outlets that looked into the exuberant Trump supporters to see if there was any merit to their claims. To save you a lot of reading, there was none.

Now that the lies of the debate winner have been put to bed, here is what I wrote early Tuesday morning after watching the debate.

Polling going into the debate and future expectations

I just finished watching the presidential debate using time delay. To me, it looks like Hillary Clinton did exceptionally well, and she will probably gain slightly from the outcome. Because of this, I wanted to have an updated look at the electoral map to better see how it changes over time.

As of right now, here is what the map looks like to me.

Election map via 270towin.com, and data via Huffington Post pollster

I have currently left four states as tied: Nevada, Iowa, Ohio, and North Carolina. While they aren’t tied technically, they are very close and have a tendency to change from one candidate to the other. Those four states — at least for the moment — are the ones that I am considering battleground states. While other states could change hands in the future, In my opinion, the rest of the states actually look pretty stable.

The stability of the map is actually bad news for Donald Trump. Hillary Clinton could lose all the remaining battleground states and still win the election by a significant margin.

I will be looking forward to seeing how the polls develop over the next days and weeks. At present, I expect further advancements for Secretary Clinton.

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Marisa

I am a writer of words, a thinker of thoughts, a changer of genders, and a queerer of life. I am an antagonist of the ordinary; and while I do tolerate it, I also look at it with contempt.

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